Predictability - a lesson from one of the world’s oldest teachers

“Been days when it pleased me,
To be on my knees…
Following ants as they crawled across the ground.”
–Willie Nelson

Ant colonies are dynamic and highly organized communities with boringly predictable behaviours. Their society is built on a culture of communication and collaboration. Huge mounds appear in hours. Locations of food sources are communicated in minutes. Mass responses to intruders take only seconds. Ants are information driven and they provide a wonderful graphic example of how information accuracy drives process predictability. For providing me this wonderfully graphic example, and for one day only, for the sake of this note, I love ants. Here’s how you can learn a lesson from nature in the cause/effect relationship between information quality and process predictability.

You could try this experiment with a bee hive — bees exhibit similar behaviours — but since we’re looking at cause and effect, you’ll be catalyzing an unfavourable response from the community. Ants are easier to outrun. So — find an ant hill. We’ll be studying the process of feeding the colony.

You’ll see ants moving in and out of the mound in a pretty orderly fashion. You’ll see two lines of ants moving along the ground, coming and going along the same path. They’re likely going to a food source and bringing it back to the mound a morsel at a time, but that’s not the important thing. The important thing is that they are literally following an information trail. That trail is made up of scent–pheromones actually — that ants use to communicate. Now try this: corrupt the trail by dragging your finger through it. That orderly process becomes chaotic. Predictability goes out the window. Ants go left, right, backward and forward to try and find that trail. And when eventually they do, they lay down fresh scent bridging the break and a predictable process is restored. The process of sustaining that ant colony returns to normal.

So how does this apply to business information, data governance and predictability? There are some pretty obvious analogues for our world here. Business, at its most basic, is the process of turning capital into profit. A company’s predictability with that process is what stock exchanges should reward with higher share prices. That predictability is largely predicated on the best information and business processes coming together over and over again. In our business, service must be predictable. It is important to understand each customer's expectation and to match customer expectations and provide service consistency to generate a positive user experience. Ultimately predictability impacts the customers satisfaction.

So what can we learn by watching ants as they crawl across the ground? Turns out, a lot. Depending on whose science you believe, our species evolved anywhere between 2,5 - 7 million years ago. By comparison, ants have been here for about 100 Million. To flourish, both of us depend on reliable information. ‘Proverbs 6:6 Go to the ant, thou sluggard, consider her ways and be wise.’

Ants have been wildly successful in their processes- have we?

Best,

Shingi

The proof is in the pudding…

Where does the phrase "the proof is in the pudding" come from? According to Bartlett's Familiar Quotations, the phrase dates back to at least 1615 when Miguel de Cervantes published Don Quixote. In this comic novel, the phrase is stated as, "The proof of the pudding is the eating". It means that the true value or quality of something can only be judged when it's put to use. The meaning is often summed up as "results are what count".

African Sun in the last few months has brought reality to the fold through performance. This began by achieving a profit for the six months ended 31 March 2012 which is the first for African Sun since dollarization. This return to ‘the black’ has been closely followed by an acquisition in Dawn of 11.99% of the issued share capital of the property company bringing African Sun’s shareholding in the company to just above 28%. This purchase is a significant part of a long term strategy to protect and enhance shareholder value. We have also successfully embarked on our refurbishment program which is on course to be completed by the end of this year for the city hotels. This improvement in the product will be supported by a new business property management system which will bring our service levels to the highest standard possible completing the quality guest experience.

As alluded to in my last blog and as evidenced in the pudding; African Sun has sat down, and come up with a solid plan for separating ourselves from the pack. More importantly, however, is that we are executing on this plan and showing our stakeholders that "results are what count".

Best,

Shingi

Reality versus Perception

Is failure an ingredient for success? Our initial response might be no way, but there is a big difference between perception and reality. When we think about what it takes to be successful, things like dedication, purpose, passion, and action come to mind. Rarely does anyone think of failure as being a key component of success. The reality however is that all successful people have failed…several times. In fact, we’ve all failed somewhere along the way. What you then find is the paradigm of perception or reality.

Managing the right balance of perception and /or reality for your brand means knowing when to communicate and when to take action. But most importantly, it means first understanding the performance issues that matter to the people who matter to you. Getting a handle on the opportunities for improvement in linking performance and brand strategy takes a clear understanding of the gap between what’s actually happening and what the public believes is happening. On one side is perception and brand image; on the other, operational reality. In the last 12 months I have come to realize this profound truth. In times of crisis, your reputation is the easiest thing to lose and the hardest thing to replace. And how do you replace those reputations? By bringing reality to the fold through performance.“You will always define events in a manner which will validate your agreement with reality.” ― Steve Maraboli, (Life, the Truth, and Being Free ). Our event this year is declaring a positive bottom line- declaring our reality to those that matter to us.

Best,

Shingi

Necessary actions for transitions

As I write this, we have recently embarked on a restructuring exercise which has resulted in a reduction of head count by 58% at our head office, affecting all levels of staff. The central office cost to ratio is expected to improve to below 10% from 18% with the completion of the restructuring exercise with all those affected leaving the company by the 31st October 2011. It has been a taxing exercise necessitated by a survival issue and not due to incompetence on the part of any of my colleagues. Having said that, parting is never easy, but not a single country or business is immune to forces such as the global economic downturn and this determines that one cuts one’s cloth according to one’s size. In addition, our current environment is not predictable and many components are subject to matters that are not within our control ranging from an unpredictable market, political environment, and policies that affect business and industry at large.

What is encouraging is that this exercise is in the best interests of the business. As leaders we sometimes have to make decisions that are painful, but ensure the posterity of a business. That decision has been taken for African Sun making the company more robust in terms of cost management from a head count perspective, thus putting it in a better position as we make the transition to a more efficient and better performing company.

Best,

Shingi

Of dollars and cents….

As I write this, I am reflecting on the mounting global economic concerns in the recent days. Of note are the United States of America’s credit rating being downgraded and the debt crisis being faced by Italy. These occurrences are cyclical and typical of economies and businesses worldwide.

Closer to home, I recently communicated our decision to exit out of the South African operations. While it was a tough decision that the board and management had to make, it is a normal turn of events for any hospitality company that hotels will be opened and hotels will be closed, but I am happy to say that the decision was in the best interest for African Sun.

As we operate hotels we must look at the hotel’s full cycle and its ability to give us our targeted return over the period we are operating it. If we find that the company is funding the operations, particularly in a lease arrangement over a protracted period as in the instance of the two hotels in South Africa then a decision is made to exit out of the arrangement.

It is therefore important never to depend on one market for profitability and viability because of the nature of our business which is very fickle to political and economic trends. You will see that this is the case with all major hotel groups in the world and also here in Zimbabwe in that that they have presence in more than one geographical region.

In that aspect we continue to seek presence in mega and growth cities in sub-Saharan Africa as our strategy and business model demands and we are set to open another 231 rooms before the end of the year. We have since opened the Best Western Homeville in Benin City in Nigeria. The next opening is Holiday Inn, Gaborone which is due to open by November in Botswana. We also have a 201-room Amber Express Hotel in Accra, Ghana under construction which is scheduled to open in the next 24 months.

Best,

Shingi